If Skylab Had Not Been Cancelled
People often wonder what would have happened if Apollo had not been cancelled - but what if America's first space station program had continued after 1974? I delve into a "what if" scenario.
Everyone is familiar with "What if Apollo wasn't cancelled" - or more accurately "What if Apollo was extended beyond its initial plan" because Apollo was never supposed to go past Apollo 20. But what about if Skylab was extended?
I don’t usually write alternate history, but this is actually relevant to where spaceflight is today, and I’ll bring it back to that at the end.
After the Apollo Moon landings was supposed to come the Apollo Applications Program, which included a new batch of Saturn/Apollo hardware to support space stations, geostationary orbit manned missions, and dual launch long duration lunar missions. The budget for this was cut to the bone in the late 1960s, precluding any new hardware, and Skylab is the only part that remained. The program as we know it ended in 1974 with Skylab 4.
There were plans to refurbish the station with the Shuttle, but its premature deorbit in 1979 made those plans redundant. But what if the program had been continued, with the remaining Apollo hardware, beyond 1974?
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1975: The Launch of Skylab B and Skylab 5
By the time Skylab 4 departed in February 1974, Skylab was running short on supplies and suffering equipment failures. There was a second Skylab available for launch, so the status of the first Skylab (now called Skylab A) and the need to expedite ground support equipment changes means that Skylab B is launched in early 1975, with more supplies, technical improvements, and hopefully no damage occurring at launch.
Alongside this, a long duration Skylab 5 mission is launched to that station. It sets a new record with a 120 day stay on the upgraded space station.
1976: The Last Saturn-Apollo Flight
There were two flight worthy Saturn 1B/Apollo stacks remaining after Skylab 4. After some consideration to use one of them for a joint US-Soviet mission, they were both reserved for Skylab. Each Skylab mission had a rescue mission ready to go, due to concerns about the durability of the Apollo capsule on orbit - concerns which had seemingly been valid when the Skylab 3 CSM suffered multiple leaks of its thruster quads.
So while one of the remaining rockets had flown the Skylab 5 mission, the other was kept stacked in case a rescue was needed, and destacked after the mission. This final Saturn 1B launch has no such safety net. So Skylab 6, launched in 1976, would have to be a shorter duration mission of only 20 days.
At this point, the Apollo hardware is expended, but NASA have a station that will still be flying around in the early 80s for the Shuttle to visit. There is a way to continue the program though…
1978: Skylab Operations
Once all Saturn 1B hardware was used, a Titan III derivative was produced to send updated LEO-optimised version of the Apollo capsule to Skylab B. So more low-cost missions could fill in the gap until the Shuttle is ready.
(This is not just me doing rocket lego - this concept was actually considered in the early 1970s, as show in documents posted on the NASASpaceFlight forum)
Throughout the late 70s, these flights would be able to maintain crews, perhaps even rotate them, and send unmanned logistic flights to resupply the station. A mission could also potentially be sent to Skylab A before it deorbits, to recover anything of use.
This extra focus on Skylab has delayed the first Shuttle flight to mid 1982. However, the Shuttle will have a working space station to visit when it launches.
1984: Beyond Space Stations
On the occasion of President Reagan's 1984 State of the Union address, the Space Shuttle has been flying for a couple of years and ferrying astronauts, supplies, and new modules to Skylab B. The President is set to announce a new, bold space initiative that will go beyond low Earth orbit.
The Shuttle itself cannot go beyond LEO. Its payloads need to be paired with an upper stage to go anywhere - a variant of the Centaur is considered, but is not powerful enough for the missions proposed. Instead, a variant of the Shuttle is created that replaces the orbiter with a single use cargo carrier. This can lift over 70 metric tonnes to LEO, which is enough for a booster that can send Shuttle payloads on to trans-lunar injection. The variant is named ‘Shuttle-C’ where the C stands for Cargo.
The mission announced is the construction of Moonbase Freedom - it will begin with human return to lunar orbit, followed by landings, and this time the US would be there to stay.
Would this system of boosters being used to launch Shuttle-assembled payloads towards the Moon work? Would the Challenger accident derail the program, and the end of the cold war make it less of a priority?
Conclusion
In reality, the remaining Saturn V, Skylab backup article, and one of the Saturn 1Bs ended up as museum pieces. The other Saturn 1B/Apollo pair performed the Apollo-Soyuz Test Program flight in 1975, which I have always felt to have dubious utility as a spaceflight, regardless of any diplomatic benefit it may have produced. In Reagan’s 1984 State of the Union he announced Space Station Freedom to be built by the Shuttle, and after much political wrangling this turned in the US segment of the ISS - the program which would be the focus of the Space Shuttle program from the 90s until its end.
Perhaps, by focusing on LEO human spaceflight in the 1970s, the US would not have got 'stuck' in LEO for so long. To me, this underlines the importance of correct objectives. NASA did have the capability to reach beyond Earth orbit in the 80s and 90s, but not the impetus.
Do NASA have the correct objectives now with the Artemis program? “The purpose of a system is what it does” as Stafford Beer once said. Are the delays and debatable architectural choices actually the purpose of the program itself, rather than returning humanity to the Moon?
That's fascinating. I hadn't known there was a plan for a second Skylab.
You might be entertained by this fictional take on the scenario:
https://gallagherstories.substack.com/p/operation-alices-restaurant